Ceasefire Collapse Sends Brent Crude Prices Surging

The oil market was caught off guard when the ceasefire between Washington and Tehran collapsed in early July, sending Brent crude prices surging by over 9% on July 13 to $87 a barrel.

The benchmark price had slipped back to $72 a barrel in early July as traders priced in returning Middle Eastern supply and an impending glut, but the physical market was telling a tighter story all along.

Total US crude inventories are at their lowest since 1984, and Saudi Aramco and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) have suggested that the market is unlikely to fully rebalance until 2027.