China Emerges as Key Force in Global Oil Markets Amid OPEC+ Weakness

The Iran war has significantly weakened OPEC+'s influence over global oil markets. The alliance's share of global oil production dropped to around 40% in July, down from 48% before the conflict began in late February.

The disruption at the Strait of Hormuz has limited OPEC+ producers' ability to export crude oil, making their output decisions less effective. Even when they announce higher production, the additional barrels may not reach consumers due to shipping restrictions.

China's influence over global oil demand is growing as its crude imports have fallen dramatically since the war began. The country purchased around 400 million fewer barrels than during the same period last year, supporting lower refinery activity and fuel exports.