China Oil Demand Set for Third Straight Annual Decline

China's oil demand is expected to decline by 8.9% in 2026, marking its third consecutive annual drop, according to research from Sinopec's economics and development arm.

The forecast indicates a significant reduction in crude imports and global oil prices, despite disruptions in supplies through the Strait of Hormuz due to the Iran war.

Gasoline and diesel consumption are expected to lead the decline in China, falling 8.7% and 11.4%, respectively, while jet fuel demand is projected to rise by 1.3%

The research unit also estimates that China's refining capacity will shrink by up to 5.5% from 2026 levels by 2030, with small and medium-sized refineries accounting for a significant portion of the eliminated excess capacity.