China Refined Copper Imports Slow Amid Price Fluctuations

China's refined copper imports slowed last week due to fluctuations in domestic and overseas copper prices. The import profit margin decreased, causing traders to become increasingly cautious. The premiums for refined copper warehouse receipts and bills of lading at Shanghai Yangshan Port also declined week on week.

The decline was attributed to slower trading in China's refined copper foreign trade market. Looking ahead, China's refined copper import trade is expected to slow in the near term due to a weakening import arbitrage.

China's refined copper retail inventory fell first and then rose last week, edging down slightly week on week. The decline was caused by typhoon disruptions and import ratio losses limiting inflows of imported copper into the domestic market. However, as futures delivery approached and SHFE nearby contracts remained in a backwardation structure, cargo holders became more willing to deliver to warehouses while downstream buying interest slowed.

Meanwhile, China's refined copper bonded inventory rose first and then fell last week, edging up slightly week on week overall. The increase was limited as some bonded-zone cargoes were also exported overseas. Looking ahead, smelter-exported cargoes are expected to continue arriving at bonded zones, and customs clearances of bonded-zone material into the domestic market are likely to remain low.

The spread between the main COMEX and LME copper contracts decreased last week, while the average LME cash-3M copper contract settlement spread increased. As a result, COMEX copper inventory continued to rise, while LME copper inventory fell further. Looking ahead, as the U.S. refined copper tariff policy remains uncertain, COMEX refined copper premiums are expected to persist in the near term.