China Reshapes Global Base Metals Flows Amid Surging Exports and Volatile Imports

China's influence on global base metals flows has been reshaped in the first half of 2026. The country, both the largest consumer and a major producer, has seen unexpected shifts in copper, nickel, and lead flows due to surging exports and volatile imports.

Refined copper imports into China fell by 13% year on year, standing at 1.374 million tonnes. However, copper exports rose by 5% to 324,000 tonnes, with the US now competing with China for affordable copper due to import tariffs and a price premium.

The aluminium market is experiencing growth in exports from China and Indonesia, which may offset production losses in the Gulf region caused by wars in Iran. Primary aluminium exports are limited by a 30% tariff, so producers are increasing shipments of semi-finished products such as plates, sheets, and foil.