China Stainless Steel Futures Decline for Fourth Consecutive Week Amid Macro Uncertainty
The Chinese stainless steel futures market has been under pressure due to weak seasonal demand and persistent macro uncertainty. The benchmark contract extended its slide for a fourth consecutive week, with losses on four of the next five sessions. The market is also being affected by disagreement within the Federal Reserve, with some officials signaling that further rate hikes may be necessary to meet policy goals.
However, the data points to a different story, with July's US CPI coming in mild and bond markets pricing the odds of a September hike down to roughly 40%. The gap between hawkish rhetoric and dovish pricing has left the policy path more uncertain than usual. Separately, President Trump denied frequent contact with Fed Governor Kevin Warsh, pushing back on market concerns about Fed independence.
The Iran ceasefire dispute is also weighing on the market, with the two sides still far apart on key issues. The Strait of Hormuz remains a major risk factor, and whether it reopens fully and a ceasefire actually holds remain the key variables shaping risk appetite, oil prices, and cost expectations across base metals.
In other news, Indonesia's nickel ore miners association announced that it would issue additional 2026 production quotas selectively, continuing the cautious stance that has weighed on the market for months. In China, July CPI rose 0.5% year-on-year, while Customs data showed a strong trade performance in the first seven months.