China Tightens Grip on Critical Minerals as Export Controls Bite

The critical minerals bull market is in full swing as China puts its arsenal back in play. According to Jack Lifton, Co-Chair of the Critical Minerals Institute (CMI), 'November 10 is not simply an export control deadline. It is the day the West discovers whether it has built anything that China cannot interrupt.'

The most revealing signal in copper this week was not the headline price, but the premium buyers were paying for metal available immediately. The cash-to-three-month spread widened to approximately US$434 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange, its steepest backwardation in five years.

Copper has become the clearest evidence that the critical minerals contest is shifting from securing future deposits to controlling present flows. China accounted for more than 90% of the growth in global copper smelting capacity between 2005 and 2025, lifting its share from roughly 15-50%, while utilisation outside China fell below 70%. The West can therefore add mine supply without proportionately reducing its processing exposure.

Enforcement is becoming as consequential as the written rules. Chinese authorities have detained several Japanese nationals in investigations involving alleged violations of dual-use export restrictions, raising the cost of operating even when material remains available and strengthening the relative position of Chinese downstream producers.