China's 15th Five-Year Plan Emphasizes Domestic Supply Security Over LNG Imports
China's 15th Five-Year Plan for oil and gas prioritizes domestic supply security while offering limited encouragement for industrial gas consumption starting in 2027, according to Kpler Insight. The plan centers on energy security and system flexibility.
The plan aims to increase domestic oil and gas output to 440 million tonnes of oil equivalent by 2030, with a long-distance pipeline network spanning 220,000 km and LNG receiving capacity of 200 mtpa. Natural gas storage will exceed 13% of national consumption, and land-based pipeline import capacity will be 114 bcm per year.
Kpler Insight has kept its domestic gas production projections unchanged at roughly 270 bcm for 2026, 282 bcm for 2027, and 297 bcm for 2028. The forecast also includes pipeline import forecasts of 81.9 bcm in 2026 and 88.5 bcm in 2027.
Stronger policy support for industrial coal-to-gas switching adds approximately 0.7 bcm to the 2027 non-power gas demand estimate, pushing LNG imports up by 0.5 mt to 68.5 mt in 2027. However, implementation delays and switching economics leave the 60.6 mt 2026 forecast unchanged.