China's Blister Copper Market Stuck in Supply-Demand Limbo

The blister copper market in China has been experiencing a supply-demand imbalance, which is unlikely to reverse in the short term. In August 2026, the copper price center shifted significantly higher, causing the price spread between primary metal and scrap to widen.

This traditional transmission logic would drive copper scrap to flow intensively into the smelting sector, boosting the supply of secondary blister copper and anode plates. However, in reality, the transmission chain was obstructed due to strict enforcement of invoice regulation and divergence between tax-inclusive and tax-exclusive materials.

Customs data showed that China imported 76,600 mt of copper anode in July 2026, up 4.83% MoM but down 9.07% YoY. Cumulative imports in January-July reached 481,500 mt, up 3.97% YoY.

The supply side was constrained by the invoice regulatory environment, while demand-side stockpiling procurement remained high due to smelters' concentrated maintenance in Q4. Processing fees continued to decline, with the average blister copper RC in south China reaching 750 yuan/mt and 700 yuan/mt in north China.