China's Electric Vehicle Boom Undermines Oil Market's Critical Chokepoint

China's rapid transition to electric vehicles (EVs) is quietly undermining one of the oil market's most critical chokepoints: the Strait of Hormuz. According to estimates, China's EV fleet displaced an estimated 1.35 million barrels per day of potential oil demand in the first half of this year.

This number represents more than 10% of total Chinese crude imports and is equivalent to roughly one-tenth of all crude that normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz. While China's strategic reserves can cushion crises, the displacement of such a large amount of oil demand weakens the chokepoint.

The electrification of transport in China has been rapid, with over 13 million electric cars sold in 2025 and an estimated 44 million on the road by the end of that year. Passenger cars account for around 54% of China's EV-related oil displacement, but it is the growth of electric semi-trailer truck sales that may be more important for oil markets.

Electric semi-trailer truck sales reportedly rose around 150% year-on-year in the first half of this year, and their share of Chinese heavy-truck sales reached nearly 50% in December last year. The electrification of transport is not just a climate policy or an industrial challenge to Western carmakers, but also a key component of China's national energy security strategy.

China's EV push has allowed the country to shift its dependence from imported oil to domestic renewable generation, reducing exposure to gas markets as well. The IEA expects EVs to remove more than 4 million barrels per day of Chinese oil demand by 2035 under both its current- and stated-policy scenarios.