China's Gas Demand Growth Slows to 1% Amid Price Pressures
China's natural gas demand growth is slowing down, according to GL Consulting. The company forecasts that China's natural gas consumption will reach 427.2 billion cubic meters (bcm) in 2026, up only 1.0% year on year. This is a marked slowdown from the 3.2% growth in 2025.
The high gas prices following the Middle East conflict have weighed heavily on price-sensitive industrial demand, which is expected to fall 7.2% this year. In contrast, transportation and power generation remain the main growth areas, with demand forecast to rise 14% and 6.6%, respectively.
GL Consulting expects domestic production to reach around 261.9 bcm in 2026, representing growth of approximately 2.5%. The company attributed this slowdown to three factors: the conclusion of China's seven-year action plan to increase domestic oil and gas reserves and production, unusually concentrated maintenance between April and June, and weakened supply incentives.
However, the slower growth does not signal a retreat from domestic supply security. Under the 15th Five-Year Plan, domestic gas remains a strategic anchor. GL Consulting expects China's annual natural gas production to exceed 300 bcm by 2030, maintaining a share of around 60% of total supply.