China's Pork Glut Drives Hog Prices Below Poultry

China's pork industry is facing a significant downturn due to a glut of hogs on the market. According to retired USDA economist Fred Gale, China's hog price has remained near 10 yuan per kilogram from April through June, below poultry prices for four straight months.

The second-quarter pork output rose 2.3 percent, while hog prices fell 28.6 percent from a year earlier. Large hog inventories continue to consume corn and soybean meal, but weak margins may eventually force production cuts.

The decline in hog prices could limit Chinese demand for imported meat while keeping feed use elevated. Analysts expect hog prices to remain near break-even through summer before possibly improving later this year.