China’s Secret Oil Cut Prevented Global Economic Catastrophe

The global economy narrowly avoided an apocalyptic oil shock in 2026 when Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, but it was China's decision to quietly cut crude imports by five million barrels a day that prevented a catastrophe.

China's unexpected move had zero visible impact on domestic mobility, and analysts used detective work to peer into Beijing's black-box inventories to understand what happened.

The Trump administration has taken credit for containing the crisis, but experts argue they may be taking the wrong lessons from the avoided disaster. Western governments must grapple with China's discretionary policy lever, which is stronger than the West's and can be used against it as easily as for it.