Citi Boosts Brent Crude Forecast to $80 Amid Prolonged Iran Conflict

Citi has increased its third-quarter 2026 Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel. This is due to a prolonged US-Iran conflict that has outlasted the bank's initial expectations.

The war in the region has disrupted oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway for global seaborne crude and LNG exports. The current conflict has already lasted five months, despite repeated attempts at a deal to restore normal oil flows.

Citi's forecast is down from an earlier estimate of $110 per barrel, which was based on peak tensions around the Hormuz blockade. However, the bank still sees risks to its forecasts, particularly if the conflict extends into Q4 or beyond.