Citi Crude Forecast Hits $80 as Iran Talks Stall
Citi analysts have raised their third-quarter Brent crude price forecast to $80 a barrel from $75, citing protracted US-Iran negotiations that have kept geopolitical risk premium embedded in oil markets. The bank expects Washington and Tehran to eventually strike a deal but the slow pace of diplomacy justifies a higher near-term price assumption.
The upward revision reflects a broader recalibration on trading desks that had been pricing in a faster diplomatic resolution. With talks deadlocked, analysts say the market is being forced to price in a longer period of constrained supply.
Citi left its fourth-quarter 2026 and full-year 2027 average Brent forecasts unchanged at $70 and $65 a barrel, respectively. The bank's analysts signaled that while the delay in resolving the conflict warrants a higher price floor for the summer quarter, they still see crude trending lower once an agreement materializes and supply fears ease.
The standoff has injected extraordinary volatility into energy markets. Goldman Sachs told clients earlier this week that Brent is likely to remain in an $80 to $90 a barrel range until a clear catalyst emerges, either a confirmed nuclear agreement with Iran or a marked intensification of hostilities.