Citi Raises Q3 2026 Brent Forecast on Prolonged Hormuz Closure

Citi has raised its third-quarter 2026 Brent price forecast to $86 per barrel from a previous estimate of $80 per barrel. The bank attributed this revision to a longer-than-expected closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil exports.

Iran is facing pressure to reopen the strait as its economy has been severely impacted by a sharp currency decline and lost oil revenue in recent weeks.

Citi anticipates that Iran may be forced to reopen the strait due to economic necessity, which could lead to renewed dealmaking efforts or other developments allowing for the strait's reopening in the fourth quarter of 2026.