Citi Sees Copper Prices Soaring to $14,500 Amid Chinese Tightening

Copper prices are expected to rise in the coming months due to China's tightening physical market and global supply pressure, according to analysts at Citi. The bank has reiterated its bullish copper outlook, targeting a price of $14,500 per tonne over the next three months and $15,000 by year-end.

Citi's analyst Tom Mulqueen noted that copper prices have remained resilient despite weaker broader commodity markets and some reduction in speculative positioning. Although demand growth remains subdued, falling inventories outside the US, particularly in China, point to underlying physical constraints.

The Yangshan import premium has surged from $45 per tonne at the beginning of 2026 to around $115-$119, reflecting increased competition among Chinese buyers for overseas metal. Shanghai inventories have also fallen sharply after a VAT fraud crackdown reduced scrap availability and lifted demand for refined imports.