Climate Change Could Send Wheat Prices Skyrocketing to $364/Tonne

A new study has found that global wheat prices could rise to USD 364/tonne if global warming continues, potentially tripling the inflation-adjusted price in 2010.

The research, led by Miroslav Trnka of the Global Change Research Institute of the Czech Academy of Sciences, suggests that climate change presents a growing risk to one of the world's most important crops. Wheat covers more land globally than rice or maize and is one of the most widely traded agricultural commodities.

The study used a new indicator called severe water scarcity (SWS) to capture both short-term and long-term water deficits during the four months before harvest, when wheat is most vulnerable to moisture stress. Researchers mapped SWS across global wheat, maize, and rice production areas and compared the affected area with global commodity prices.

The results showed that 74% of annual variation in global wheat prices (2000-2021) could be attributed to SWS alone, while for maize, SWS explained up to 40% of price variability. Dr Mikhail Semenov, co-author of the study from Rothamsted, noted that while drought is not the sole driver of wheat prices, it has a significant impact.