Coconut Oil Production Surges 7% Amid Philippine Rainfall

Global coconut oil production has seen a significant surge of 7% this season. The increase in output can be attributed to ample rainfall in the Philippines during the 2025/2026 period, according to LIPSA.

This substantial rise in production has led to a considerable recovery in global coconut oil stocks, as reported by LIPSA on July 17th. As a result of the rising supplies, prices have dropped by 30% compared to the record high recorded last June.

However, despite the short-term prospects of high-yielding phases, production growth is forecast to slow down to a maximum of 1% in October/September 2026/27. Global consumption is predicted to rise by 3%-4% due to increased stocks and a shift away from rival commodity crude palm kernel oil (CPKO).

Despite these positive trends, severe dryness caused by El Niño weather conditions has started in the Philippines and is expected to lead to major supply contraction and market tightness from mid-2027.