Commerzbank Raises European Energy Price Forecasts Amid LNG Supply Constraints
Norman Liebke at Commerzbank has revised gas and power price forecasts higher due to tighter European storage, increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG), and structural constraints on Qatari exports.
The phase-out of Russian Gas from 2027 adds upside risk to prices. Liebke expects the year-end gas price to stand at EUR 50 per MWh and German power at EUR 110 per MWh, with only partial easing by end-2027.
European LNG supplies are under pressure due to the sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which will restrict Qatari LNG production - and thus exports - by one fifth over the next three to five years. The partial destruction of Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility is a significant factor in this constraint.
The approved phase-out of Russian gas imports adds another upside risk to prices. Russian gas imports will be phased out from early 2027 for LNG and autumn 2027 for pipeline gas, further contributing to the upward pressure on European energy markets.