Commerzbank Raises Gas Price Forecasts Amid Tighter European Storage

Natural gas prices are expected to increase due to tighter European storage and increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG), according to Commerzbank. Norman Liebke, a representative of the bank, has revised gas and German power price forecasts higher.

The current forecast for year-end gas is EUR 50 per MWh, up from EUR 45 previously, while the end-2027 forecast remains at EUR 40 per MWh. This increase is attributed to structural constraints on Qatari LNG exports due to damage at the Ras Laffan facility.

A significant upside risk to prices comes from the phase-out of Russian gas imports, which will take effect in early 2027 for LNG and autumn 2027 for pipeline gas. Even after the Strait of Hormuz reopens, Qatari exports are expected to remain restricted by one fifth over the next three to five years.