Commerzbank Raises Natural Gas Forecast Amid Tighter Storage and LNG Reliance
Commerzbank has revised its forecasts for natural gas and German power prices higher due to tightening storage, increased reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG), and structural constraints on Qatari exports. The bank's analysis cites the phase-out of Russian Gas from 2027 as an upside risk.
Norman Liebke at Commerzbank notes that even after a sustained reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Qatari LNG production will remain restricted by one fifth over the next three to five years due to damage to Qatar's Ras Laffan LNG facility. This reduction in exports is expected to impact gas prices.
The bank has revised its year-end forecast for natural gas to EUR 50 per MWh and German power to EUR 110 per MWh, with only partial easing by end-2027. The phase-out of Russian Gas from 2027 adds upside risk to these forecasts.