Commerzbank Sees Tightening LNG Market Driving Higher Natural Gas Prices

Commerzbank has increased its natural gas price forecasts due to a tightening in the global LNG market. The bank's revised analysis points to a combination of supply-side constraints and resilient demand, particularly from Asian economies such as China and India.

The core of Commerzbank's argument is that new LNG export capacity is being delayed in major projects in the US and Qatar, while demand for LNG remains robust. This dynamic is expected to keep the market structurally tight, preventing significant price corrections even as seasonal demand fluctuates.

Commerzbank's upward revision signals a higher equilibrium price band for the coming quarters. This adjustment aligns with other financial institutions that have acknowledged persistent geopolitical risks and supply chain vulnerabilities as key factors driving energy prices above pre-2022 averages.