Commodities Market Update: Natural Gas Breakout and Crude Oil Downtrend

Natural gas prices have been stuck in a tight range at the bottom of a massive 2-year falling wedge, setting up a major influx of volume once it breaks. For a bull breakout to happen, traders need to see a decisive close above $3.30 and $3.40, targeting $3.50.

On the other hand, if natural gas prices break down below the established double-bottom support, a bearish move could be underway.

Crude oil is still in a daily downtrend after a textbook triple RSI divergence signaled the ultimate macro top. Unless the trend invalidates, bears are firmly in control. If economic cooling continues, crude oil could test the $90, $95 region with an eye toward the $80s by year's end.

The US dollar index is staging a highly technical breakout above a long-term megaphone pattern, followed by a two-day backtest and bounce. A successful breakout could hint at higher rate hike expectations, but if it fails, it may act as a launchpad for precious metals like gold and silver.