Commodity Markets Shift Toward 'New Equilibrium' Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Global commodity markets are shifting toward a 'new equilibrium' due to ongoing geopolitical tensions. According to Chen Li, Chief Economist and Director of the Research Institute at Chuancai Securities, the current situation has evolved from a mere 'disruptive variable' into a 'core factor' in pricing. This shift is reshaping trading logic for crude oil, gold, and industrial metals.
The price of gold has strengthened, reaching $4,342.95 per ounce as of August 14, driven by cooling expectations regarding Federal Reserve interest rate hikes and a shift in market risk appetite. US non-farm payroll data for July came in well below expectations, and the month-on-month CPI declined, leading to uncertainty about the timing and magnitude of further rate hikes this year.
The impact of geopolitical tensions on crude oil prices remains significant, with international prices fluctuating in response to expectations regarding navigation through the Strait of Hormuz. As of August 14, the primary NYMEX WTI crude oil futures contract had risen by over 1%, surpassing $82 per barrel.