Conflict Drives Wheat Prices to 3.5-Year High Amid Export Decline
The conflict between Ukraine and Russia has led to a significant increase in wheat prices. After CIA chief's visit to Russia, Putin ordered increased strikes on Ukraine, making peace talks seem futile.
This decision resulted in a sharp rise in stock market quotes for wheat and other crops. The situation worsened as Ukraine and the Russian Federation continued their attacks on civilian infrastructure, blocking key ports and shipping routes.
As a result, wheat exports from both countries have decreased significantly. In August 2026, they are expected to export only 2.5 million tons of wheat, compared to 6.3 million in August 2025.
The reduction in exports has led to an increase in prices for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago, which rose by 20% in a month to a 3.5-year high. The price of September futures rose on Friday: $281.8/t for soft winter SRW wheat in Chicago (+20%), $304.2/t for durum HRW wheat in Kansas City (+17%), and $273.8/t for spring HRS wheat in Minneapolis (+8%).
The European Commission reported that the EU reduced wheat exports by 49% compared to the previous season, from 2.9 to 1.48 million tons.