Congo Mine Setback and US Tariff Risks Send Copper Prices Soaring Above $14,800

Copper prices have surged past $14,800 per tonne on the Comex exchange, and while AI demand is contributing to this trend, it's not the primary driver. The sharp price increase can be attributed to a combination of factors, including a mine setback in the Democratic Republic of Congo and US tariff risks.

The Kamoa-Kakula project in Congo has been affected by flooding and seismic disruption, with output potentially falling by as much as 57,000 tons this year. This has added to concerns about supply, particularly in a market already worried about copper exports from the region.

The US tariff risk is also contributing to the price surge, as traders are stockpiling metal before potential duties take effect. With refined copper tariffs potentially being imposed in 2027 and 2028, importers are pulling in large volumes of metal, pushing US inventories past 1 million tonnes.

While AI demand for copper is significant, with data centers requiring substantial amounts of the metal, it's not the primary driver of the current price surge. The rally above $14,800 has been driven by a combination of short-term panic and long-term demand, with supply shocks and tariff stockpiling putting pressure on prices.