Copper Hits All-Time Highs as Global Economy Shifts to Physical Realities

The global economy is shifting from speculative macro phases to physical realities of supply chains, weather disruptions, and critical metal deficits.

London's Hyde Park has experienced its driest July on record in Southern England since August 2025. This has significant implications for the agriculture and core inputs sector, specifically fertiliser production.

The phosphate supply squeeze is a major concern, with Mosaic, a US-listed fertiliser giant, announcing curtailments of phosphate output in the US and Brazil due to high sulphur prices caused by geopolitical bottlenecks. This has resulted in an estimated 30 million tonne global deficit if sulphur supply constraints persist.

Copper hit new all-time highs last week, driven by massive grid overhauls, data centre buildouts, and ongoing structural mine deficits. However, gold lags behind, following the historical pattern of copper leading the physical supply charge before gold catches up as currency debasement and government debt pressures collide with metal prices.

Sovereign money is stepping in to secure critical mineral projects, with the US EXIM Bank announcing funding for graphite, rare earths, and strategic metals. While this may not translate into immediate investment opportunities, it highlights the growing recognition of the need for secure supply chains.