Copper Prices Soar as Supply Squeeze Worsens

Copper prices have surged by 4.3% to $6.73 per pound over the past week, while copper equities have fallen by 2.6%, highlighting a widening disconnect between the commodity and its producers.

RBC Capital Markets notes that the supply squeeze in the physical market is intensifying, with disruptions accumulating across major copper-producing regions.

The LME spot-to-3-month futures spread has reached $0.30 per pound, the steepest premium since 2021's supply squeeze that prompted emergency exchange intervention.

Supply disruptions have affected several major producers, including PT Smelting Gresik in Indonesia, which was hit by a boiler failure, and Antofagasta, which cut its 2026 production guidance due to storms at Los Pelambres.

RBC's modelling suggests that mining equities are pricing in copper prices significantly lower than the current spot price, with estimates ranging from $3.83 per pound for Ivanhoe Mines to $5.62 per pound for First Quantum.