Copper Prices Soar as Tariff Uncertainty Reigns

Copper prices have reached record highs in August, driven by tightening stockpiles and mine disruption. The price of copper hit a record high several times, and prices held above $14,000 a tonne for their longest-ever run.

The main reason behind the surge is not just supply side issues, but also the uncertainty surrounding US tariffs on copper imports. The Commerce Department was supposed to conclude its Section 232 review by June 30th, but there's still no decision. If refined copper loses its exemption from tariffs, it could lead to a premium on Comex over London prices, affecting global metal flows.

Standard Chartered's base metals team believes that the uncertainty will keep copper prices elevated for a while yet. They cite continued tariff uncertainty, thin ex-US inventories, and ongoing mine-supply problems as reasons for their forecast of $13,472 a tonne in 2026, up from $13,169.

The market dynamics have shifted dramatically since the spring, when concerns about demand were high. Now, it's all about supply tightness, amplified by the tariff overhang. The question is no longer how far copper might fall, but how long it can stay this high.