Copper Prices Soar on Mining-Smelting Imbalance and US Tariff Uncertainty

Copper prices have hit a record high of USD 14,737 per tonne on the London Metal Exchange in September 2026, up nearly 50% over the past year. The Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) attributes this surge to a growing mismatch between global copper mining and smelting capacity.

The IPCPA notes that hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have been shipped to the United States since the start of the year, taking advantage of the price premium between the Comex and LME markets. The US Commerce Department's report on potential copper import tariffs is overdue, but the market continues to price in the possibility of trade restrictions.

The prospect of tariffs has led to a redistribution of copper inventories, with Comex stocks surging to a record 6,75,000 tonnes while LME warehouses have fallen to critically low levels. Global mine output has been slightly weaker due to operational challenges at three to four major mines, while China's expansion of smelting capacity is placing additional pressure on an already constrained supply of copper concentrates.

The resulting imbalance is reflected in treatment and refining charges (TC/RCs), which have fallen to unprecedented levels of around negative USD 1,300 per tonne. This decline indicates that smelters are facing increasing financial pressure as competition for copper concentrates intensifies.