Copper Rally May Stall Amid US Tariff Concerns: What It Means for BHP

Copper prices have surged this year, rising by 16% on the London Metal Exchange. However, some analysts believe that this rally may be at risk of stalling due to concerns over US tariffs.

The price increase is partly driven by physical copper moving into the US in anticipation of possible Section 232 tariffs. This creates a geographic distortion between LME futures and COMEX contracts, with the latter being slightly contangoed.

BHP investors may be affected as copper's gains have already reflected much of the long-term positive outlook. If the price premium related to US tariff risk fades, copper prices could fall back to structural support levels.

Copper represented 54% of BHP's FY2026 EBITDA and became the largest revenue source, surpassing iron ore for the first time.