Copper Set for Short-Term Pullback as Seasonal Patterns Align with Market Fears

Copper prices have surged over 30% in the past year, driven by demand from industries such as data centres, renewable energy, and electric cars. Rio Tinto's strong first half of 2026 earnings report highlights the metal's importance, with firms like BHP Group and Sandfire Resources also benefiting.

However, commodity trader Andrew Pancholi of Market Timing Report warns that copper may be due for a short-term pullback. According to his seasonality analysis, copper tends to peak in July and drop into late August or early September.

The current price action is compared to the historic pattern in a chart provided by Market Timing Report, showing the orange line representing the past trend and the green line representing the current prices. While this may not mean that there will be no future opportunity around copper, it suggests caution in the short term.

Other factors also contribute to potential volatility in copper prices. The Middle East conflict poses a risk to economic growth, while US President Donald Trump's threatened tariffs on copper imports from 2027 onwards have drawn the metal to US warehouses, which hold a record 630,000 tonnes after eight straight quarters of rising levels.