Copper Supply Crunch Hits Critical Mass as AI Demand Surges
Copper has emerged as a critical strategic asset due to skyrocketing demand from AI data centers, electric vehicles, and renewable energy grids. Global demand is projected to surge significantly by 2050, with BHP estimating it will climb from around 35.3 million tons today to more than 55.1 million tons by 2050.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) warns of a 25% copper supply gap by 2035, even after new projects improve the picture. This shortage has already led to record prices in early 2026, with copper briefly exceeding $6.58 per pound in January of that year.
The challenge lies in expanding mining and processing without turning a climate solution into a source of emissions, waste, and ecological conflict. Recycling is seen as the quickest lever to address the shortage, with the IEA estimating secondary supply could rise from 17% of copper demand today to nearly 40% by 2050.
The European Union has placed copper on its strategic raw materials list, aiming to extract 10%, process 40%, and recycle 25% of the metal it consumes by 2030. Spain is seen as a key player in meeting this goal, with Madrid approving a mineral plan worth around $473 million in March 2026.