Copper Surges to Record High as Supply Constraints Bite

Copper prices have surged to a record high of $14,533 per ton on the London Metal Exchange (LME), driven by expectations of US tariffs and supply constraints.

According to veteran commodities strategist Jeff Currie, the physical economy is repricing scarcity in the real world. He notes that copper's climb above $14,500/ton is a sign that the market is responding to the lack of available metal, rather than just reflecting tariff front-running and metal being pulled into US warehouses.

Currie warns that supply cannot respond quickly enough due to constraints such as weather, war, and policymaking, which have combined against underinvestment. He also points out that while there is no shortage of copper globally, much of it is locked in warehouses and unavailable for use outside the US and China.

Michael Cuoco, head of metals at StoneX Financial, agrees with Currie, stating that strong demand growth and supply challenges will bring about a tighter future market balance supporting higher prices. Adam Gillard, managing director in commodity sales at Goldman Sachs, also notes that the current dynamic of high imports from the US is optimal for the administration, but warns that if imports drop off, tariff rhetoric may change.