Copper's Record Price Masks a Surplus Reality: Tariffs Loom Large
Copper prices reached a record high in August 2026, but a closer look reveals a different story. The London Metal Exchange (LME) copper price fell by 0.64% to $14,232.50 per tonne on August 27, 2026, after the US Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index rose 3.7% year on year.
The rise in PCE prices revived Fed hike bets and strengthened the dollar, making it harder for copper-linked equities to perform well. However, underlying copper demand remained unchanged.
COMEX copper stockpiles reached a record high of 675,185 metric tonnes on August 25, 2026, built through tariff arbitrage rather than new mine supply. Unwinding this stockpile is more likely to cap further price gains than new production.
CRU projects a global copper surplus of 639,000 tonnes for 2026, despite copper trading near its all-time record high. This suggests that the current price reflects a policy premium built on hoarding rather than a demand premium based on scarcity.