Corn and Soybean Conditions Slip, Uncertainty Remains for This Year's Crop

The latest Crop Progress report has raised more questions than answers about the size of this year's corn and soybean crops. The grain market continues to struggle with the uncertainty, and it may take a while before we get a clear picture of how big this crop is.

National corn conditions fell four percentage points last week to 63% good to excellent, compared with 73% last year. Corn rated poor to very poor increased from 9% to 12%, while the excellent category fell from 16% to 13%. The situation is similar for soybeans, with national conditions falling three points to 63% good to excellent, compared to 70% last year.

The dryness across much of North Dakota, South Dakota, and Nebraska has been a major concern. Subsoil moisture was rated short to very short across 48% of North Dakota, 74% of South Dakota, and 72% of Nebraska. The situation is also affecting soybean yields, with 80% of the crop blooming and 47% setting pods, both ahead of average.

The next few weeks are crucial for final yields, and a timely rain may provide temporary relief but without adequate subsoil moisture, the crop has less available water to carry it through the next stretch of heat and dryness. Producers in dry areas are hesitant to make additional sales due to production uncertainty, but they should be careful not to oversell bushels they may not have.