Corn Futures Test Key Resistance Amid Geopolitical Tensions
Corn futures have been trading in a tight range between geopolitical risk premium and crop progress news. The price has hovered near a nine-week high, above $4.6 per bushel, as higher crude oil prices outweighed better than expected US crop conditions.
The ongoing conflict near the Strait of Hormuz has pushed crude oil sharply higher, lifting the outlook for corn-based ethanol demand. On the supply side, the USDA's latest crop rating showed 67% of the corn crop in good to excellent condition, one point lower than the previous week but still above the 66% analysts expected.
Despite this mildly bearish supply picture, a bullish demand and stocks story has taken over. Total US corn sales commitments for the 2025/26 marketing year have reached 3.41 billion bushels, up almost 24% year over year and already ahead of the USDA's own full year export forecast of 3.325 billion bushels.
The key level to watch going forward is $487 per bushel, corresponding to Daily level 2. How the market reacts at this level will likely set the tone for the next leg of the move.