Corn Surges as Corn Ending Stocks Tighten to Two-Year Low
The August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report has revealed significant market-moving data for agricultural producers, with corn emerging as the standout performer. Despite a yield cut that outweighed acreage gains, corn's 'superstar' status is attributed to a perfect convergence of tightening domestic ending stocks, aggressive export adjustments, and robust usage forecasts.
The demand side provided the catalyst for corn's bullish momentum, with old-crop (2025-26) ending stocks slashed from 2.02 billion bushels down to 1.945 billion bushels, fueled by a 75-million-bushel boost in exports. The USDA bumped new-crop export projections up another 75 million bushels to 3.275 billion bushels.
As a result of robust usage and lower beginning stock balances, the USDA projected 2026-27 U.S. corn ending stocks at 1.653 billion bushels, down substantially from 1.79 billion bushels in July. This supply tightening prompted the USDA to raise its season-average farmgate price forecast by 10 cents to $4.50 per bushel.
Meanwhile, the wheat balance sheet presented a more mixed outlook, with USDA trimming new-crop wheat production slightly to 1.531 billion bushels and reducing combined exports from Russia and Ukraine by only 2.5 million tons. The soybean crush and biofuel expectations pointed to growth, with a record new-crop harvest of 4.519 billion bushels projected.