Corn Yields Lag, Soybeans Surge Amid Record Production Estimates
The Pro Farmer Crop Tour has yielded an unusual discrepancy between corn and soybean estimates. While the national corn yield is estimated to be well below USDA's August estimate, at 173.2 bushels per acre, the soybean yield has moved in the opposite direction, exceeding USDA's current estimate of 52.7 with a new record high of 53.3 bushels per acre.
According to Pro Farmer, corn production would be reduced by approximately 665 million bushels if their yield is applied to USDA's harvested acreage, moving ending stocks from about 10.1% to approximately 6.1%. This would likely necessitate a price increase to slow exports, ethanol use or feed demand.
The soybean adjustment is less dramatic, with Pro Farmer's production estimate being only 53 million bushels above USDA. This would increase projected ending stocks from 320 million to approximately 373 million bushels, with stocks to use rising from around 7% to just over 8%. However, this is not an overwhelmingly burdensome supply, and strong crush demand or additional export sales could still absorb those bushels.