Counterseasonal Rally Ignites Corn and Soybean Markets
The typical harvest season script is not playing out this year in the corn and soybean markets. The calendar has turned to September, but instead of combines rolling, elevators filling, basis weakening, farmer selling increasing, and futures working lower under harvest pressure, prices are rallying.
Corn and soybeans have gained despite the first meaningful wave of harvest pressure not even arriving yet. November soybeans traded above $13, while corn continues to find buyers on setbacks rather than breaking under the weight of approaching harvest.
This counterseasonal rally is not a law of nature but the result of behavior. Farmers need storage space and cash flow, elevators and end-users know more grain is coming, and buyers can wait while sellers often cannot.