Critical Mineral Demand to Surge Through 2040, Supply Gaps Persist: IEA

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has projected that global demand for critical minerals will surge through 2040, driven by the expansion of electric vehicles, battery storage, renewable energy, and electricity networks.

According to the IEA's Stated Policies Scenario (STEPS), meeting future demand will require more than $750 billion in investment in mining and refining between now and 2040. Copper is expected to account for the largest share of investment at about $310 billion, followed by nickel at $280 billion.

The agency projects that lithium demand will more than triple by 2040, while graphite demand is expected to double and nickel demand to increase by 65 per cent. Rare earth demand is projected to rise by around 50 per cent, while copper demand is set to grow by more than 25 per cent.

The IEA noted that supply gaps for key minerals such as copper and lithium could persist through 2035, despite a growing pipeline of mining projects. The agency also highlighted the vulnerability in refining and downstream processing capacity, with China currently accounting for over 90 per cent of battery-grade graphite production.