Critical Minerals Demand Not Primarily Driven by Renewable Energy
A recent analysis by the Oakland Institute challenges the assumption that a large increase in mining is an unavoidable cost of replacing fossil fuels. Using data from the International Energy Agency (IEA), the institute found that wind, solar, and renewable power networks accounted for only 26% of combined demand for critical minerals like copper, lithium, nickel, cobalt, graphite, and magnet rare earths in 2024.
The remaining 74% was attributed to construction, conventional transport, industrial machinery, defense, electronics, and other uses. Specifically, the institute found that non-renewable industries accounted for 83% of nickel demand, 79% of magnet rare-earth demand, 71% of copper demand, and 68% of both cobalt and graphite demand in 2024.
The IEA's Net Zero by 2050 roadmap projects a significant increase in the number of electric vehicles (EVs), with the number expected to rise from 11 million in 2020 to almost 2 billion in 2050. However, even under this scenario, EVs would consume only 23% of the projected combined total of critical minerals.