Crude Oil Price Surge Boosts T-Note Yields, Stocks Mixed as Energy and Software Stocks Shine

The stock market is mixed today as higher crude oil prices boost T-note yields. The S&P 500 Index SPY is up 0.05%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average DIA and Nasdaq 100 Index QQQ are down -0.02% and -0.15%, respectively.

Higher WTI crude oil prices, up more than +2% today, are driving inflation expectations and T-note yields higher. The 10-year T-note yield has risen to 4.69%, a +4 bp increase.

Despite losses in stock indices, strength in energy providers, software stocks, and cybersecurity companies is limiting declines. Optimism around AI spending is also supporting the market, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co.'s (TSMC) 45% y/y sales growth in July indicating sustained demand for its AI hardware.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. has raised its year-end projection for the S&P 500 to 8,000 from 7,800, citing strong earnings season and faster AI monetization than expected. The outlook for Q2 earnings is also bullish, with the S&P 500 tracking for almost 32% growth.