Crude Prices Seen Reaching $105-$107 as Global Reserves Deplete

Kunal Shah, VP and Head of Commodities Research at Nirmal Bang Securities, expects crude oil prices to rise to $105-$107 per barrel in the near term due to global reserves depleting and Chinese buying returning.

The physical oil market remains tight, with disruptions to refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia adding pressure across the energy market. Despite a significant drawdown in crude reserves, Shah believes there is little reason to turn bearish unless there is a breakthrough in US-Iran peace talks.

The rapid depletion of reserves has been a concern for several months, with the US, Japan, and China using around 2.8 million barrels per day from their reserves since July. With reserves now depleting and Chinese buying resuming, Shah expects upward pressure on prices to increase.

Copper is also expected to benefit from tight supplies, with Shah predicting prices will test $15,000-$15,500 per metric tonne. He believes the market is driven by supply, as copper mine supply growth is expected to be negative in 2026 and demand remains strong.