Currie Flags Asymmetric Trade in Commodity Markets

Jeff Currie, former Goldman Sachs commodities chief and current Chief Strategy Officer of Energy Pathways at Carlyle Group, is warning investors to 'Get long and buckle up' as he believes markets are entering a structural commodity bull cycle. In his latest note dated August 20, 2026, Currie reiterates his call from mid-May that the market has yet to price in this new trend.

Currie's thesis is built on three pillars: AI infrastructure demand, genuine supply shortage, and deglobalization. He argues that as Google, Meta, Microsoft, and Amazon plan to spend $700 billion in 2026 on capex, they will collide with hard limits on physical materials, leading to a surge in commodity prices.

Currie also points out that mining companies are spending 40% less than at the 2012 supercycle peak, despite rising copper and aluminum demand. He characterizes this as a 'genuine supply shortage' that will drive up prices.

Furthermore, Currie notes that deglobalization is leading to a shift from HAGO (Hard Assets, Global Operations) to HALO (Hard Assets, Local Operations), which will tighten supply chains and intensify resource competition.