Deutsche Bank: Gold Bull Run Still Intact Despite Recent Correction
Gold prices pulled back to around $4,031 an ounce after reaching an all-time high of $5,589 on January 28, 2026. This correction spooked some investors and raised questions about whether the two-year bull run that started in August 2024 was running out of steam.
Deutsche Bank recently published a note stating that this is not the case. The bank's analysts used a statistical measure called BSADF to evaluate the recent pullback. According to Deutsche Bank, the explosive phase of gold price behavior began in August 2024 and is still ongoing.
The bank's fair value estimate for year-end is $4,700 an ounce, which implies roughly 17% upside from current levels. This is above the bank's official Q4 2026 price target of $4,600. Deutsche Bank believes that the underlying trend has not broken and that the correction was real but muted compared to prior explosive phases.
The bank also highlighted the importance of central banks in supporting gold prices. China and other emerging market governments have been buying gold consistently to reduce dependence on the U.S. dollar. This is a key factor that sets Deutsche Bank's model apart from simpler frameworks that predict lower prices, such as $2,600.
In summary, Deutsche Bank does not believe that the recent correction marks the end of the bull run. The bank sees structural support underneath the current price and expects gold to continue its upward trend.