Deutsche Bank Sees Gold Pullback as Pause in Ongoing Rally

Deutsche Bank's analysts have reaffirmed their bullish outlook for gold, arguing that its recent pullback has likely run its course. The bank's analysis suggests that gold may have found a floor around $3,900/oz, rather than extending its decline toward a regression-implied level of $3,700/oz.

The bank's analysts used a statistical method to identify 'explosive' price episodes in market data going back to 1975. They found that the current gold rally, dated from August 2024, is one of only five such episodes. The analysis implies a much lower long-term level for gold near $2,600/oz, a figure that stands in contrast to current spot prices.

The bank's fair value model still points to a fair value near $4,700/oz by year-end, which sits above the bank's own Q4 2026 forecast of $4,600/oz. Deutsche Bank is maintaining its existing gold price forecast, framing the metal's current pullback as a pause within an ongoing structural rally.