Deutsche Bank Sticks with Bullish Gold Forecast Amid Central Bank Demand

Deutsche Bank reaffirmed its bullish outlook for gold, maintaining a forecast of $4,600 per ounce in Q4 2026. The bank's analysis suggests that gold is in an explosive phase that began in August 2024, with only five similar episodes recorded since 1975.

The bank believes that the current cycle will continue to drive up demand for gold, particularly from central banks. According to data from the World Gold Council, nearly 89% of central banks expect global gold reserves to increase over the next 12 months, and about 45% plan to expand their own holdings.

Deutsche Bank's forecast is slightly below its estimated fair value of $4,700 per ounce by year-end. The bank considers a scenario where gold falls to $2,600 per ounce as unlikely, instead believing that it has found a bottom near $3,900 per ounce during its recent correction.

Other major banks, including Goldman Sachs and UBS, have also been bullish on gold's price outlook for 2026. However, some analysts remain cautious due to the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets like gold in an environment with high interest rates and a strong US dollar.