Drought Spikes Wheat Prices: Global Food Security Threatened by Climate-Induced Water Scarcity

An international team of scientists has discovered that severe water scarcity events have a significant impact on global wheat prices. The researchers used climate observations, crop geography, and global commodity prices to develop a model that explains 74 percent of the year-to-year variation in wheat prices between 2000 and 2021.

The study focused on wheat because it is a staple food for a large part of the world's population and is grown across more land than either rice or maize. The researchers used a newly developed Severe Water Scarcity (SWS) indicator, which combines short- and long-term water deficits focusing specifically on the four months prior to harvest.

The model projected that at 2°C warming relative to the 1951-1980 average, wheat prices will reach approximately $273 per ton. At 3°C, the estimate rises to $364 per ton, which is about three times the inflation-adjusted global wheat price in 2010.